
Inflow Forecasting for Muskrat Falls Flood Management
Nalcor Energy
|
Canada
|
2014
Automatic data acquisition and inflow forecasting.
Scheduled dam construction at reduced cost.
Improved worker safety at dam site.
Challenge
- During the construction of the Lower Churchill hydroelectric project in Labrador, Canada, Nalcor Energy needed to properly manage scheduling at the site.
- The Churchill Falls Generating Station has plant outflows ranging from 1,000 m3/s overnight to 3,000 m3/s during the day, so accurate inflow forecasts were also needed.
- The outflows significantly impact water volume at the Muskrat Falls dam site and the lower river, where peak spring flows can be as high as 6,500 m3/s.
- A software tool that could both manage the construction schedule and provide accurate forecasts of inflow volumes, especially during the spring runoff, was needed.
Solutions
- Set up and calibrated the inflow Vista module of Vista DSS™ for the lower Churchill River.
- The set up included six subwatersheds.
- Flow released from the upstream Churchill Falls hydroelectric generation station on the Churchill River (which constitutes a large portion of the river flow at Muskrat Falls), is represented in the model.
Highlights
- Vista produces continuous inflow forecasts that are updated daily, and route flows down the Churchill River to the Muskrat Falls project.
- Vista also projects outflows and water levels at the Muskrat Falls dam site.
- For short-term inflow forecasts, Vista features automatic access of real-time hydrometric and weather data, snow course data, and pertinent meteorological forecast data.
- To assess the risk of the river flow flooding the construction site, extended streamflow prediction forecasts are generated periodically using observed and historical temperature and precipitation data.
Project numbers
6 sub-watersheds
6,500 m3/s peak spring flows
1,000 m3/s outflows overnight to 3000 m3/s during the day