Planning and elasticity parameters for train use learning from the deterioration of Prasa Metrorail

Author(s) P. Onderwater
This paper is presented by Pieter Onderwater, Public Transport Planner, Urban Solutions, at the Southern African Transport Conference in July 2021.


Borax mine in the ETI Maden sites in Turkey PRASA Metrorail’s level of service is rapidly declining and consequently passenger volumes are reducing. By analysing these levels of reduction between 2009, 2015 and 2019, elasticity parameters for several service aspects were determined. Although many declining service aspects would have influenced the actual trip time and service frequency, the presented timetable schedules had not changed significantly. Instead, the decline in service manifested itself as a reduction in reliability with increasing service cancelations and poor punctuality. With these developments, the elasticity parameter for ‘Reliability’ is calculated as +2: with every 1% reliability decrease, passenger volumes reduced by 2%. This would mean that passengers respond very elastically to this aspect, meaning reliability is a real dissatisfier.